| Signal | Current Value | Thresholds | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX vs Jan/Nov lows | 7,736.52 | >5,829 GREEN / ≤5,700 RED | GREEN |
| SPX vs 10-month MA | +10.24% vs MA ↑ (MA 7,018) | above MA + slope up | GREEN |
| NVDA distance from 52w high | -10.40% from high | within 5% / >10% below | RED |
| AAPL distance from 52w high | -10.21% from high | within 5% / >10% below | RED |
| HYG/IEF credit ratio vs 200d MA | 0.8531 (+1.57% vs MA) | above MA / >3% below | GREEN |
| VIX | 16.50 | 14–20 GREEN / >25 RED | GREEN |
| Margin debt YoY | +30.48% YoY | <30% / >38% | YELLOW |
| S&P 500 breadth (% above 50d MA) | 67.86% (340/501) | >60% / <40% | GREEN |
| SCOTUS tariff decision | Not yet updated — edit this file to set the current SCOTUS tariff status. | — | INFO |
Gate A — credit breakdown is an absolute veto. HYG/LQD breaking its 20-day, a SOFR spike, or SRF usage appearing: any one of these vetoes deployment outright. This gate is binary and it is not weighed against anything else — while it fires there is no sizing conversation to have. Credit breaking is the market saying the transmission mechanism itself is impaired, and that is not a condition to buy a dip into.
Gate B — rates hostility is a sizing input, never a veto. The 30-year against 5.20 governs how much and how deep, not whether. Hostile rates shrink size and push entries deeper; they do not stop a deployment on their own. Sizing rung 1 requires real rung-2 separation to exist first — without genuine separation between the rungs there is no depth to deploy into, and rung 1 is not sized on a rates read alone.
Falsifier. This split is wrong if a credit-breakdown veto is followed by a durable advance that never offered a better entry — i.e. the veto cost more than it saved — or if rates hostility alone precedes a drawdown that a veto would have avoided. Either outcome means the two gates are miscategorised and the veto/sizing assignment must be re-argued from the record, not patched.
Eight market-stress signals are scored daily as GREEN, YELLOW, or RED against thresholds derived from Tom Lee's leading-indicator framework. The aggregate state counts RED signals: zero to one is LOW RISK, two to three is ELEVATED RISK, four or more is DRAWDOWN TRIGGER FIRING. A Telegram alert dispatches when the aggregate crosses into ELEVATED, or resets back to LOW from four-plus.
SPX vs Jan/Nov lows tracks the 5,700 and 5,829 floors from earlier 2026 dislocations. SPX vs 10-month MA uses a 210-day proxy with a 20-day slope check. NVDA and AAPL distance-from-52w-high read AI-cycle leadership and consumer-tech demand respectively. HYG/IEF credit ratio against its 200d MA reads risk appetite in high-yield versus Treasuries. VIX scores complacency below 14 and stress above 25. Margin debt YoY comes from FRED series BOGZ1FL663067003Q (household debt securities), refreshed quarterly. Breadth is computed live from S&P 500 constituents via Alpaca SIP — percent of names trading above their 50-day moving average.
The SCOTUS row is informational and updated manually as the tariff case progresses.