Tue 9/8 – Fri 9/11
Screened 2026-09-08 (Tuesday rescan; bars through 9/4)

CRWD

closed
A — pullback in uptrend · Roth
2026-09-142026-09-08
Thesis

Post-earnings pullback in a name that printed a record quarter on 8/26 (revenue $1.47B +26%, ARR $5.84B +25%, record net new ARR $332.8M, FY net-new-ARR guide raised) while software as a group sold off; price on the 20d SMA (210.56) above a rising 50d (200.81), RSI 53, 8.9% off the 20d high, RS60 +25.

Levels
Entry
208.00
Buy limit 208.00 GTC — at/just under the 20d SMA. Placed only after the Wed 9/9 5:45 AM PT verdict (GO requires pre-market within 2% of the prior close and above 200).
Invalidation
200.00
Close below 200.00 (50d SMA 200.81) → out next open.
Hard stop
196.00
Sell stop 196.00 GTC placed immediately after the fill (−5.8%). Catastrophe backstop.
T1
229.00
+10.1% — inside the 10.8% implied move to 10/2. Charter: +5% → stop to breakeven; +15% → scale out.
T2
233.90
20d high (+12.5%).
Size
120 shares · $24,960 · 10.1% NAV
Risk at invalidation
$960 · 0.40% NAV
Risk at hard stop
$1,440 · 0.60% NAV
The trade
Instrument
Common stock. Options chain is cheap (IV/RV 0.56) but stock is the cleanest expression for a 2–4 week hold; no leverage.
Entry B
If it runs away above 214 before filling, do not chase; wait for the next pullback toward 208–210 or let the week go.
R:R
2.6:1 vs invalidation · 1.75:1 vs hard stop (FLAGGED under 2:1)
Falsifier
Close below 200, or software keeps bleeding on AI-disruption selling regardless of CRWD's numbers (NOW −4.7% on 9/8). Unverified: whether Fal.Con falls inside the hold.
Review
Fri 9/11 ledger; FOMC 9/15–16 inside the hold → size cut from the 15% cap to 10%.
Latest check
Thu 9/10 08:55 ET

HOLD the 50 CRWD filled 9/8 @ 207.69 (Roth). HOLD OFF on the remaining 70-sh 208.00 limit — do not place it today; if it is resting unfilled, cancel it before the open (pre-market is below 208, so it would fill at market into the gap); if it filled on 9/9 (the 9/9 low was 207.00, through the limit), confirm the fill and raise the 196.00 stop to cover 120 sh. CRWD pre-market 203.50 at 08:46 ET (tape) / 203.65 at 08:52 (portfolio SIP mark) / 203.88 at 08:52 (stockanalysis) vs the 9/9 close 207.80 = −2.07% / −2.00% / −1.89% — on the edge of the 2% band, above the 200.00 invalidation. 9/9 close 207.80 was above 200 — no exit. Position at 203.65: −1.95% from entry; invalidation 200.00 (close-only) / hard stop 196.00 in place for 50 sh / breakeven trigger 218.07 / T1 229.00 / T2 233.90. Macro: PPI +0.4% as expected, WTI > $100, yields at multi-year highs, ECB hike; SPY 758.07 (−1.03%) at 08:46, VIX 17.2, net GEX −8.7B strong short gamma (9/9). Nothing on CRWD; ORCL after the close is the software read-through. Fri 9/11 is the good-through date — an unfilled limit is cancelled at the close.

Outcome
C

Per the bars: CRWD week 213.10 -> 206.74 (-2.98%) vs SPY -0.81%; the 208 limit would have filled 9/9 (low 207.00); no close under the 200 invalidation (closes 210.02 / 207.80 / 208.86 / 206.74), the 196 hard stop never touched (week low 204.27), T1 229 / T2 233.90 / breakeven 218.07 never printed (week high 214.68). Actual: BUY 50 @ 207.69 Roth 9/8 (confirmed on the card), SOLD 50 Fri 9/11 on the chart read — exit price UNKNOWN, confirm (approx 205-206 = roughly -$85 to -$135). Book endpoint (as_of 9/8) does not show CRWD.

Fills
BUY 50 @ 207.69 Roth 9/8 confirmed on the card; SOLD 50 Fri 9/11 confirmed by Jason, price UNKNOWN — confirm
Missed
Semis, the wire's rotation call (Halftime 9/9: AMD, MRVL): AMD +8.07% on the week (477.57 -> 516.13), QCOM +7.84%, INTC +7.45%, MRVL +5.61%. The card's own alternates were both green: ANET +3.00% (199.59, +5.61% Friday; the 194.50 entry traded through 9/9) and XOM +4.09% (light crude COT was the non-obvious angle). Software rotated OUT as the card's own falsifier warned: IGV -2.94%, NOW -6.18%, ORCL -5.35%.
Outcome chart read
CRWD_D (bar date 9/11, rendered 13:16 ET intraday; on-demand render returned the cached file): swing highs 233.88 / 227.50 / 217.50, swing lows 181.24 / 181.00 / 174.14; since the 8/27 gap (4.9% still open, 191.32-200.60) the picture is lower highs 233.88 -> 218.31 -> 214.68 -> 213.19 on red volume larger than green, price under the 20d (207.44) above the 50d (202.55). CRWD_60: falling session VWAP, 213-214 ceiling rejected 9/4, 9/10, 9/11, 204 base tested 9/2-3, 9/10 (204.27), 9/11 (204.44) — a post-earnings distribution, not bucket A, at entry and now; the structure-kill (lower high + third base test) fired 9/11.
Alternates
ANET
Bucket A, +1.2% on 9/8 while software dumped; IV/RV 1.0, skew +3.8 (hedged, not crowded). Entry 194.50 (20d SMA), invalidation close < 183 (50d), hard 180, T1 211.50 → 1.5:1.
XOM
Energy is the #1 sector on the Brent ~$100 Saudi-strike spike and crude COT non-commercial net is only 6.8% of OI (light positioning). Pullback only: 161.40 (20d SMA) / stop 156.30 / T1 168.60 → 1.4:1, half size.
Passed (6)
XBI
Sector-wide dump at the open 9/8; prior primary, voided.
Semis (INTC, ASML, ARM, KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, NVDA, MU)
Gaps into downtrends (AMAT 19% off high, KLAC/LRCX below 50d, SOXX RS60 −10); INTC +6% gap exceeds the 5% limit; NVDA/MU at 20d highs with no defined target — chase.
MPC / PSX / VLO / XOP
Refiners RSI 75–78 (extended); XOP at its 20d high on a news spike.
GDX / gold miners
Gold COT non-commercial net 55% of OI (crowding warning) and FXE flagged gold at decade-plus resistance.
FRO / INSW / DHT
+2.5% gaps on Brent; 32-pt skew = thin chains.
SCHW / MA
No catalyst; T1 within 5% → thin R:R.
Catalysts
Thu 9/10 08:30 ET
PPI (Aug)
Thu 9/10 after close
ORCL earnings (sector read-through for software)
Fri 9/11 08:30 ET
CPI (Aug)
Tue–Wed 9/15–16
FOMC (inside the hold → size cut)
Tape

strong short gamma, net GEX −1.2B (9/7 read)

Context — IV & market

Breadth and contango allow normal size; the CPI/FOMC window inside the hold cut it to 10% NAV. T1 set inside the implied move. Ruling 9/8: pick judged in isolation from the book.

ATM IV
51.61
Realized vol 20d
91.63
IV/RV
0.56
Implied move %
10.82
Target expiry
2026-10-02
25d skew
1.31
P/C OI
0.76
Crowded
none
% above 50d
53.70
% above 200d
69.70
Net new 20d highs
3.00
Sector
XLK
Sector rank
6.00
Sector rank change
0.00
VIX
14.53
VIX3M
17.61
VIX/VIX3M
0.83
Ledger
WeekPickSetupEntryResultGrade
2026-09-14 AAPL B (breakout/continuation; screen 9/16: within 1.1% of the 20d high, RS20 +9.0, RS60 +10.6, RSI 62, not extended) 333.50 OPEN — interim. Per the bars (stockanalysis; Yahoo 429 all run) the 333.50 limit would have filled Fri 9/18 (O 337.91 H 338.49 L 332.53 C 336.13, 85.9M sh — quad witching, the month's biggest volume); GO was issued 08:52 ET so the order was placeable. Close 336.13 = +0.79% vs entry, above the 335 ceiling for a second day; invalidation 328 / hard stop 319 never threatened (week low 328.35 on 9/15, before the card); T1 344.57 / T2 358 not printed (week high 338.49). AAPL week +1.16% (332.27 → 336.13) vs SPY −0.34% (764.29 → 761.69); QQQ +0.90%, XLK +1.03%. Fills UNKNOWN — book file still as_of 9/8, no AAPL. Falsifier watch: Friday was red on the month's biggest volume but closed in the top 60% of its range above 335 — not a reversal, but the first warning bar. Next: Sun 9/20 chart review · Wed 9/23 good-through · Fri 9/25 ledger.
Day-trade paper ledger
Trades
114
713 candidates over 29 sessions
Win rate
49.1%
live 58 · backfill 56
Average R
-0.02R
best +3.10R · worst -2.73R
Total R
-2.06R
2026-08-10 → 2026-09-18
No trade — no sweep 252 · failed sweep 201 · panic premium 105 · no reclaim by 1130 41
DateTickerGapEntryExitR
2026-09-18 ONON +4.94% 27.16 27.25 time 1555 +0.41R
2026-09-18 SLV +2.12% 59.93 59.66 stop -1.25R
2026-09-17 USO short -2.17% 154.78 155.87 stop -1.54R
2026-09-17 ENTG +4.02% 133.46 134.69 time 1555 +0.92R
2026-09-17 TXN +2.80% 262.76 260.34 stop -1.29R
2026-09-17 QCOM +3.74% 189.82 187.78 stop -1.12R
2026-09-17 AMZN +2.10% 250.45 252.02 tp2 +1.29R
2026-09-17 SOFI +2.49% 16.80 16.74 time 1555 -0.44R
2026-09-17 PANW short -2.50% 372.61 375.97 stop -1.13R
2026-09-17 KLAC +4.10% 169.84 168.22 stop -1.49R